CBOT Corn Futures Fall on Improved Crop Prospects
Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
- Yield-replenishing rains in the US Midwest boosted corn crop prospects.
- CBOT September corn futures dropped 2.25 cents (-0.56%) to settle at $3.9950/bu.
- Positive export sales to South Korea and Mexico were largely discounted by the market.
- The market’s focus remained on improved domestic US crop conditions.
- Minimal impact observed on other agricultural commodities.
Contents
- CBOT Corn Futures Fall on Improved Crop Prospects
- Primary Driver Behind the Price Drop
- Impact on Other Agricultural Commodities
- What to Watch Next
Primary Driver Behind the Price Drop
At approximately 21:00 UTC on Friday, August 29, 2025, CBOT corn futures experienced a sharp decline, with the September 2025 contract leading the drop. The most actively traded September contract settled at $3.9950 per bushel, representing a decrease of 2.25 cents (-0.56%). This significant move lower in the corn market followed reports of improved crop conditions in the US Midwest, and comes after the market closed for the US Labor Day weekend. This news follows several days of market activity and updates from sources such as Farm Progress, USDA, and Trading Economics.
The primary driver behind the price drop was the arrival of yield-replenishing rains across key growing areas in the US Midwest. These rains mitigated the negative impact of recent heat stress on corn crops, bolstering overall yield expectations. While the USDA announced two substantial export sales—5.5 million bushels to South Korea and 4.0 million bushels to Mexico for the 2025/26 delivery year—Farm Progress reports that traders largely discounted these positive developments. The market’s focus remained firmly on the improved crop prospects. Further contributing to the price weakness was some technical selling ahead of the US Labor Day weekend, according to Farm Progress.
Despite the positive impact of the US rains, a decline in French corn crop quality, dropping three points to 69% good/excellent, had a muted impact on global prices, Farm Progress reports. This suggests that the market is primarily reacting to the domestic US supply situation.
The September corn contract’s settlement price of $3.9950/bu represents a roughly 1% decrease from the prior day’s close. Live quotes, as of 05:00 UTC on September 1, 2025, indicated a slightly lower price of approximately $3.98/bu Trading Economics. The December 2025 contract showed a more modest decline, closing at $4.19/bu Farm Progress. The price weakness was predominantly concentrated in the front-end contracts, with deferred contracts experiencing smaller losses, indicating a relatively stable term structure, according to the USDA Minneapolis Daily Grain Report. Basis levels showed minimal movement overall, although some river terminals in Illinois saw a slight strengthening Farm Progress.
Impact on Other Agricultural Commodities
The impact on other agricultural commodities was minimal, with no significant price movements reported in other grains or oilseeds. This suggests that the corn market’s movement was largely specific to the improved US crop conditions, and export sales, rather than broader market forces. The general lack of significant moves in other commodity benchmarks during the last 12 hours is corroborated by sources such as Angel One and Grain Central.
What to Watch Next
- Upcoming USDA reports: Monitor future USDA reports for updates on crop conditions and yield estimates, which will play a key role in shaping market sentiment.
- Weather patterns: Keep a close eye on weather forecasts for the US Midwest, as any further rainfall or heat waves could significantly influence corn yields.
- Global demand: Track global demand for corn, paying attention to any significant changes in export orders or import needs from major consuming countries.
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FAQ
What caused the drop in corn futures?
The primary cause was yield-replenishing rains in the US Midwest, improving crop prospects and mitigating the impact of heat stress.
Were export sales a factor?
While significant export sales were announced, traders largely discounted their positive impact, focusing instead on the improved domestic crop outlook.
How did other commodities react?
Other agricultural commodities showed minimal price movements, suggesting the corn market’s reaction was largely isolated to US crop conditions and export sales.
