Upcoming Benchmark Revision to Show Significantly Lower US Job Growth
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
- Major BLS benchmark revision upcoming: Expect significantly lower reported US job growth.
- Market anticipates downward pressure: On the US dollar and potential rally in US Treasuries.
- Post-release market volatility expected: Depending on the magnitude of the revision and its implications for interest rates.
- Global implications: The revision will influence assessments of US economic growth and Federal Reserve policy.
Contents
- Upcoming Benchmark Revision to Show Significantly Lower US Job Growth
- Headline Numbers vs. Consensus
- Market Reaction (Pre-Release)
- Post-Release Market Impact (Expected)
- Reputable Sources
- Implications for the US and Global Economy
- What to Watch Next
Headline Numbers vs. Consensus
Economists anticipate that the revision will show U.S. payroll employment to be approximately 775,000–800,000 jobs lower for the twelve months through March 2025 than previously reported. This source provides more detail. This translates to an average monthly job growth in 2024 of just 100,000, a substantial downward revision from the previously reported 165,000. This is considerably lower than consensus forecasts from earlier in the year. The actual figures released by the BLS will be compared to these expectations to determine the true market impact.
Market Reaction (Pre-Release)
As the revision has not yet been released, a detailed market reaction is pending. However, anticipation of such a significant downward revision in employment data is already impacting market sentiment. A substantial reduction in reported job growth is likely to exert downward pressure on the US dollar (USD), potentially leading to a weakening of the DXY index. Conversely, the potential implications for slower economic growth and a reduced need for further interest rate hikes could trigger a rally in U.S. Treasuries, pushing down UST 2-year and 10-year yields and flattening the yield curve. This would also likely pressure major equity indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, given concerns about a potential slowdown in economic growth. Major currency crosses, such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY, are expected to reflect the shifts in USD sentiment. Gold, considered a safe-haven asset, may see an increase in demand if investors seek safety in response to the weaker-than-expected jobs data. Conversely, risk assets may decline should the data confirm a sharper slowdown in the US economy than previously anticipated. CBS News offers further insights.
Post-Release Market Impact (Expected)
The magnitude of the downward revision will be crucial in determining the market’s immediate response. A significant shortfall from expectations could trigger a sharper sell-off in equities and a flight to safety, potentially driving up gold prices and further depressing the USD. Conversely, if the revision is less severe than feared, the market reaction could be more muted, or even positive, if the data is still perceived as consistent with a soft landing for the economy. The impact on bond yields will depend on the market’s assessment of the implications for monetary policy. A weaker than expected labour market report could strengthen the argument for holding interest rates steady or even cutting rates in response to reduced inflationary pressures. However, if inflation remains stubbornly high despite the weaker employment data, a different reaction might be seen.
Reputable Sources
- CBS News preview (details on revision): CBS News Article
- Bloomberg calendar coverage (summary and expectations): *(Note: A direct link to a Bloomberg article summarizing expectations was not provided in the input data. Bloomberg Terminal users should monitor the relevant release page.)*
- BLS official release page (expected soon): *(Note: The official BLS release page will be available closer to the release time at www.bls.gov)*
Implications for the US and Global Economy
This BLS benchmark revision will significantly impact assessments of U.S. economic growth and Federal Reserve policy. The data will influence the ongoing debate surrounding the health of the labor market and the potential for a recession. A downward revision of this magnitude could heighten concerns of a slowing economy and potentially lead to a reassessment of future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Globally, the implications are equally important. The US economy’s performance is a significant factor impacting global growth and market sentiment. A weaker-than-expected US economy could have knock-on effects across international markets.
What to Watch Next
- The official BLS release at 12:30 PM UTC on September 9, 2025: Pay close attention to the precise figures released by the BLS to understand the full extent of the revision.
- Market reaction across asset classes: Observe how the DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, UST 2y/10y and curve, Bund/Gilt yields, equity indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, etc.), gold, and oil prices respond to the news.
- Statements from Federal Reserve officials: Look for any comments from Federal Reserve members concerning the implications of the revised employment data for monetary policy.
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